In a lecture this week a professor spent considerable time explaining sunk costs. Those are costs that a person has already spent, and regardless of what their next decision is, those costs will not be reimbursed, and hence should have no effect on the next decision. One example was a person who had purchased a ticket to an event when something else comes along that the person would rather do. The professor said that if the person were a rational decision maker they would make the decision about going to the event with the previously purchased ticket or going to the new event independent of the fact that the ticket was already purchased. But we all know that the fact the money has been spent will weigh on the mind of the decision maker and that person may well go to the previously scheduled event just to make sure that ticket money wasn’t wasted.
Another example used in lecture was people that tend to stay on a certain path on which they have already invested a great deal of time or money rather than accept that the path is heading in a way that will never be successful. The specifics she talked about related to research, that people stick with a line of research even if it becomes obvious that the end result would be less than optimum. Her point was that it was much better to abandon the research even though much had been invested, because those investments were “sunk costs” that would never be retreived.
This lead me to wonder why anyone has motivation to work on difficult situations. Why work through problems in a relationship or at work? If a rational decision maker would know the previous work was a sunk cost and not recoverable, would that rational decision maker cut their losses and leave as soon as the going gets tough? What keeps us trying to make things work? Are we being irrational?
January 17, 2007 at 7:52 pm
We can only start with NOW, and go forward. But I disagree that the sunk cost should have no effect on the next decision. Concerning the example where you have bought a ticket to Event A but would rather to Event B (assuming you cannot do both), you say the rational decision maker would make the decision independent of the fact that the ticket was already purchased. I disagree because you would not totally ignore the fact that you have the ticket to event A. By sinking the cost into event A you are NOW at a different spot than if you had not sunk the cost so you have to look at where you are now and decide. The decision to be made in the example is would you still go to event B even though you could go to Event A for free?
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January 18, 2007 at 1:46 pm
Absolutly right. The decision IS would you go to event B even though you could go to event A for free, because essentially b and a are equal in opportunity costs now. So the probability of going to either is the same even though you already spent $ for event a. So says the professor.
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